By my count we’ve had four adverse surprises lately: GDP, private-sector payrolls, service-sector survey, and new claims for unemployment insurance. Since there seem to be a fair number of Charlie Browns out there — people who keep expecting a housing recovery, even though Lucy keeps pulling away the football — I guess we should add weak housing numbers to the mix.
It looks like a sputter, not a crash, but it’s definitely not good.
The bond market agrees: 10-year rates are back down to 3.17 percent. (S&P? Never heard of them).
The tragedy is that even as the real economy disappoints, yet again, Washington is entirely focused on dire events that aren’t happening: fiscal crisis, runaway inflation, dollar collapse.
Lost decade, here we come.
“Passion and prejudice govern the world; only under the name of reason” --John Wesley
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Lost decade, here we come.
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