Doug Henwood on the Deficits and Medicare

via Facebook:

First, don't get hysterical about the current deficit. It's been swollen by recession and bailouts. For the 2013-2021 period, the CBO estimates that the deficit will average just over 3% of GDP. That's big, but not crippling - and well below the Reagan average. Through 2021, Social Security spending as a percent of GDP will rise 0.5 point; Medicare, 0.7; and Medicaid, 0.6. Together, that's less than a 3 point rise. But Medicare collects premiums. Net of those, Medicare will rise by 0.5 point. But other forms of mandatory spending are slated to *fall*. So all mandatory spending net of offsetting receipts is projected to rise by 1 percentage point of GDP. End the wars - about 1% of GDP this year - and roll back the Bush tax cuts, almost 3% of GDP, and you can cover that increase four times over. Oh, and the increase in the military share of GDP since 2000 is about 3 percentage points. Why is that not perceived as a fiscal emergency, but taking care of the old and sick is?