Monday, November 16, 2009

Revenue and Health Care Costs... conservatives are roadblocks to fiscal sustainability...

"Mere parsimony is not economy.... Expense, and great expense, may be an essential part in true economy." 
 
Economist Brad Delong on Budget Deficit...
 
 
Safari
  • In the short term, we don't have a deficit problem: as long as unemployment remains highly elevated--certainly as long as the unemployment rate stays above 7%--and as long as interest rates on U.S. Treasuries stay low a bigger federal deficit is a feature not a bug: our short-term deficit problem (and the short term lasts for most of Obama's remaining term) is that the deficit is too small, not too big.

  • In the long term, our deficit problem is a federal government health spending problem. Unless medical care cost growth is brought under control--and here the drivers are not factors specific to government programs, for private-sector medical expenditures are exploding at least as rapidly as Medicare and Medicaid--then excess medical cost growth will lead the federal government health programs to first devour the rest of the social insurance state in the years after 2020 and then devour themselves.

  • In the medium term between 2012 and 2020 we are, current projections tell us, on a sustainable budget path--with a budget deficit "no larger than the average of the past thirty years," as the Bush administration flacks used to tell us--with a stable debt-to-GDP ratio as long as output does not grow more slowly than projected and as long as congress observes PAYGO: as long as congress pays for whatever policy changes it makes.

Doug Elmendorf's worry--the thing that makes him pay attention not to the solid medium-term sustainable-deficit lines in the graph above but to the dotted medium-term unsustainable-deficit lines in the graph above--is that congress will not pay for the policy changes it enacts.

So now let's turn the microphone over to Matthew Yglesias:

The Surprisingly Easy Medium-Term Budget Fix: The dashed lines, however, represent a “current policy” scenario in which we assume that some of the Bush tax cuts will be extended and also that the AMT threshold will continue to be pushed up. Those are reasonable assumptions.... Elmendorf, in other words, isn’t wrong to worry about that.

But... this nuance is lost on the man in the street. The problem... isn’t... that we’re driving toward the edge of the cliff. The problem is... congress seems overwhelmingly likely to steer us [over the cliff].... It’s absurd for [congressional] politicians to be... engaged in highly public deficit hand-wringing...

while not admitting that they could solve the problem by simply saying no.

Senator Evan Bayh and others sound a lot like they are saying: "The President needs to do something to keep us from voting the way we have decided to vote!!"

That's just sad.

Just say "PAYGO," starting in fiscal 2012. That's all that it will (probably) take for the medium term...

Its important to remember that bringing health care costs to the levels of other industrialized nations who all have universal health care dramatically improves our deficit--on top of that, ending the Bush tax cuts that created a huge chunk of our budget deficits.
 
Conservatives in both the Democrat and Republican parties have been the biggest roadblocks when it comes to both issues--these are important reminders of how "liberal" has come to mean fiscally responsible. 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Sunday, November 15, 2009

National Security... Republican ineptitude...

In a two party system you have to choose between one of the two major parties.  When it comes to the national level I have leaned Democrat for many reasons--one of the biggest deciding factors has been on the question of national security.
 
The nature of political bureaucracies and patronage means that no matter who is on top--the bureaucracies are filled with insiders who have worked their way up the political chain.  My distrust of the Bush Administration and their internal apparatus means that Republican administrations for a number of election cycles will be filled with appointments and insiders that come directly out of the Bush machine. 
 
A senior counsel to the 9/11 Commission, John Farmer, has written a book on the 9/11 aftermath.  Todays New York TImes book review gives a good overview of the ineptitude of the Bush Administration....  

Perhaps nothing perturbs Farmer more than the contention that high-ranking officials responded quickly and effectively to the revelation that Qaeda attacks were taking place. Nothing, Farmer indicates, could be further from the truth: President George W. Bush and other officials were mostly irrelevant during the hijackings; instead, it was the ground-level commanders who made operational decisions in an ad hoc fashion. The memoirs of the White House terrorism expert Richard Clarke, which Farmer credits with good faith, make it sound as though a dramatic video­conference that Clarke led played a crucial role in organizing a response to the hijackings, but Farmer says that “this account does not square in any significant respect with what occurred that morning.”

To bolster such contentions, Farmer focuses minutely on newly available transcripts from the Federal Aviation Administration and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad). He shows that, perversely enough, the one defense agency that had suffered draconian budget cuts was Norad, which had seen its alert sites reduced from about two dozen to a pitiful seven and, in any case, was unable to view large areas of the continental United States owing to its antiquated radar system.

In addition, local commanders bypassed established protocols for reporting and requesting assistance for a hijacking, in part because they had so little time in which to act. Farmer superbly renders the knuckle-biting tension and confusion engendered by the hijackings, and says the leadership of the F.A.A. and the Defense Department “would remain largely irrelevant to the critical decision making and unaware of the evolving situation ‘on the ground’ until the attacks were completed” — thereby making it close to impossible for the military to inter­cept any aircraft.

Yet both Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Vice President Dick Cheney, Farmer says, provided palpably false versions that touted the military’s readiness to shoot down United 93 before it could hit Washington. Planes were never in place to intercept it. By the time the Northeast Air Defense Sector had been informed of the hijacking, United 93 had already crashed. Farmer scrutinizes F.A.A. and Norad rec­ords to provide irrefragable evidence that a day after a Sept. 17 White House briefing, both agencies suddenly altered their chronologies to produce a coherent timeline and story that “fit together nicely with the account provided publicly by Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz and Vice President Cheney.”

Farmer further observes that the Bush administration wrongly asserted that the chain of command functioned on 9/11; that President Bush issued an authorization to shoot down hijacked commercial flights; and that top officials at F.A.A. headquarters coordinated their actions with the military. Farmer’s verdict: “History should record that whether through unprecedented administrative incompetence or orchestrated mendacity, the American people were misled about the nation’s response to the 9/11 attacks.”

--
James A. Nichols IV
cell: (770) 312-6736
 
"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."     ---Calvin Coolidge (1872 - 1933)
 
"I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians."    Charles De Gaulle (1890 - 1970)
 
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Saturday, November 14, 2009

I'll leave you with these thoughts for the night...

"Only as we discover the extent to which secularism has colored our perspectives will we be able to hold out hope of coming to terms with the religious deception of our time."    --David Pacini
 
"It's a queer feeling to be so utterly dependent on the help of others, but at least it teaches one to be grateful, a lesson I hope I shall never forget. In normal life we hardly realize how much more we receive than we give, and life cannot be rich without such gratitude. It is so easy to overestimate the importance of our own achievements compared with what we owe to the help of others."  --D. B.
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

On why we need more moderate Republicans...

As I've mentioned many times, I came to party politics distrusting and frustrated with both political parties but that I found the Democrats to have a bigger tent with a less ideologically driven agenda... (it goes without saying this was during the Bush era...) 
 
Former Chair of the Henry County Republican Party Charles Mobley posted a great example--legislating morality is not something government should be doing.
 
We will be moving in the right direction[sic] as a nation when ideologues who hold these kinds of priorities lose power and influence within the Republican base. 
 
Until that day, moderates will have a tough time within the Republican Party, and our nation will be the worse for it.... 
 
I do hope some moderates show up in Republican primaries to challenge Republican ideologues... though I'm not confident that it will happen as seen from Glen Becks influence on Republican activists....
 
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Why socialism is utopian...

Came across a Rosa Luxemburg essay and this snippet reminds us why the socialist ambitions of the 19th-20th century failed...

In a word: the workingman in a Socialist industrial state must show that he can work decently and diligently, without capitalists and slavedrivers behind his back: that of his own volition he can maintain discipline and do his best. This demands mental discipline, moral stamina, it demands a feeling of self-respect and responsibility, a spiritual rebirth of the workingman.

Socialism cannot be realized with lazy, careless, egotistic, thoughtless and shiftless men and women. A Socialist state of society needs people everyone of whom is full of enthusiasm and fervor for the general welfare, full of a spirit of self-sacrifice and sympathy for his fellow men, full of courage and tenacity and the willingness to dare even against the greatest odds.

It goes without saying that this holds true for its intellectual cousin... laissez faire capitalism.
 
When it comes to human beings/human nature I side with conservatives like Friedrich Nietzsche and Edmund Burke over the Enlightenment ideal of human beings...
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Friday, November 6, 2009

Gays aren't families...[sic]

A picture speaks a thousand words...  "the gays aren't families"????

 
Image: Gay marriage supporters
 
 
I was reading an story on the repeal of the gay-marriage law in Maine this week 
This picture kind of ripped at my heart... and it brings up a separate question I've been wanting to address.  Are homosexuals in long term monogamous relationships families?  To many of you I'm sure this seems like a really strange question for me to be asking.  But I wanted to post on it because my State Representative, Steve Davis, says no they are not families. 
 
I'd link you to his blog post directly for this quote but for some reason its not up right now.  So I'll link to a post on this from Blog for Democracy:
Today is the 17th legislative day of the session. It is called Family Day so that legislators can bring their wifes [sic] and kids up for the day and show our family atmosphere. However I do not bring my family due to the spectacle presented by the fringe groups in front of our children. You have Labor Unions, "Working Families" wanting minimum wage increases, marches for racial equality, and the worst is GSLBT [sic] groups that try to prove they are families too(by exposing our young children to them kissing and holding hands). I will just say that I am very passionate about the issues but I did not get into politics to expose my children to adult issues. It is a shame that these groups try to exploit this event the way they do.
I'm going to pass over the other reasons why family day is exploited and inappropriate for his children and just stick to the issue of whether Gay Lesbian Bisexual and Transgendered (GLBT) couples can be a family . Go look at the Definition of family real quick for context...
  
Steve Davis' position is that homosexuals aren't families.  That's a radical position.
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

good policy makers will always keep this in mind...

Mere parsimony is not economy.... Expense, and great expense, may be an essential part in true economy. 

Its a pretty basic truism... its something I try to always keep in mind @JimN2010 when I'm looking at the challenges facing this state and smart policy.

Policymakers who don't understand this tend to be reckless and/or radical... or radically reckless...  or however you want to phrase it...

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Monday, November 2, 2009

Jon Stewart did a wonderful segment with Israeli/Palestinian peace activists...

 
Jon Stewart is on the cutting edge of bringing real news, addressing real issues, and exposing media/political hypocrisy...  add the middle east to his level headed analysis and efforts...
 
 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

annual growth versus annual changes in the unemployment rate over the past 60 years

I posted on stimulus early this morning before work...
 
Here is scatterplot via economist Paul Krugman to remind us why more money to do things like extend unemployment, patch holes in state budgets to fill in for declining revenues, and other efforts to keep the economy on life support is vital:
DESCRIPTION
Free Exchange blog over at The Economist magazine chimed in on Krugman's chart Third quarter growth not nearly enough:
And consider this: the last time the unemployment rate hit its current level was during the recession of 1981-1982 (during which the unemployment rate actually peaked at 10.8% during the final quarter of the recession). Here are the quarterly growth rates for the six quarters immediately following the end of that recession: 5.1%, 9.3%, 8.1%, 8.5%, 8.0%, 7.1%. And at the end of that period, the unemployment rate was still above 7%. For the last recession, which ended in the fourth quarter of 2001, quarterly growth in the next six quarters looked like this: 3.5%, 2.1%, 2.0%, 0.1%, 1.6%, 3.2%. 

Essentially, we are looking at a situation in which, absent some significant and surprise change in the economic outlook, American unemployment will remain near 10% through the end of 2010, at least. It is difficult to predict the political fall-out from that kind of sustained level of joblessness, but I can imagine some of the probable effects, including growing anger at Wall Street and foreign exporters, particularly China. The seeds will be sown for an unpleasant populist uprising, which might well do a lot of damage to American economic policy.

It's not a happy place to be. And I don't really understand why there isn't more visible concern in Washington (or on Wall Street, for that matter) about this state of affairs.

 
Until the economy is powered by the private sector again, you're stuck with two options--do nothing ad watch things remain stagnate if not dip down again, or have government keep the economy on life support. 
 
Americans need jobs and our economy needs to get back to strong growth.  The impacts of unemployment are devastating---in the real world, where real people are facing, real struggles...  keeping revenues up and further reducing unemployment should be top priority. 
 
Talking heads might take a blase approach to the unemployment numbers and lack of strong growth--from them you get the do nothing, wait it out approach.  Generally speaking these were the same people who said that government spending wouldn't prop up the economy until the private sector could get back on its feet. 
 
Americans have gotten the short end of the stick from government over the past decade--no wonder nobody trusts they can do anything right....  8 years of Republican leadership got me to work for Democrats, Tonjia must be rolling in her grave!
 
Democrats need to do the right thing and take the lead in passing some kind of jobs bill or at the very least extends unemployment.  The job of government is to protect and empower its citizens.  We have the tools to keep the economy on life support and throw life rafts out to American families who are struggling--we need the leadership to make it happen.
--
James A. Nichols IV
cell: (770) 312-6736
www.JimN2010.com
www.JimNichols4.com

"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."     ---Calvin Coolidge (1872 - 1933)

"I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians."    Charles De Gaulle (1890 - 1970)

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Memories of UC Davis...

Jim walked by the a zillion times... The egg-head status!!!
 
Edge of the American West posted on them
 


 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Memories of UC Davis...

Jim walked by the a zillion times... The egg-head status!!!
 
Edge of the American West posted on them
 


 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Quote for the day...

"Men go abroad to wonder at the heights of mountains, at the huge waves of the sea, at the long courses of the rivers, at the vast compass of the ocean, at the circular motions of the stars, and they pass by themselves without wondering."     - Saint Augustine


                                                                 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

One proposal for a Republican resurgence... act like Democrats...

The impacts of 8 years of Bush, as well as watching conservative ideologues take control of the Republican party got people like me involved with the lesser of two evils.  Obama got elected because of a distrust of conservative ideology.  The Sarah Palins of the party, the flat-eartherr' birthers,  the party opposition to the stimulus bill, and being the party of no isn't helping.  Whats a republican to do?
 
Mark Thoma walks us through one recent commentary on how Republicans can gain traction with voters...
 

Luigi Zingales is worried that populist anger might fall into the hands of evil Democrats rather than Republicans who would, of course, use this strong populist force for good:

Pro-Market Populism Is GOP's Out, by Luigi Zingales, Commentary, investors.com: ...[T]he financial crisis has created significant discontent. In a survey taken last December, 60% of Americans declared themselves "angry" or "very angry" about the economic situation.
If Republicans ignore this popular anger, as the party establishment did last autumn, they leave a powerful and potentially disruptive force in the hands of Democrats. The Democrats could channel popular anger into protectionism, 90% tax rates and onerous new market constraints.
In Republican hands, populism could become a strong force for positive change.

And Republicans would do this by adopting Democratic ideas:

The Republican Party has to move from a pro-business strategy that defends the interests of existing companies to a pro- market strategy that fosters open competition and freedom of entry.
While the two agendas sometimes coincide, they are often at odds. Established firms are threatened by competition and frequently use their political muscle to restrict new entries into their industry, strengthening their positions but putting their customers at a disadvantage.

Reducing market power through regulation and is something Democrats have long advocated, but Republicans have argued that the market takes care of this itself, there's no need for government to intervene. So how would Republicans solve the problem in, say, the financial industry?

A pro-market strategy aims to encourage the best conditions for doing business, for everyone. Large banks benefit from trading derivatives (such as credit default swaps) over the counter, rather than in an organized exchange. ... For this reason, they oppose moving such trades to organized exchanges, where transactions would be conducted with greater transparency, liquidity and collateralization — and so with greater financial stability. This is where a pro-market party needs the courage to take on the financial industry on behalf of everyone else.

Again, that sounds like what Democrats have been saying, that these markets need to be regulated.

What else is involved in this pro-market strategy that will save the Republican party?

A pro-market strategy rejects subsidies because they're a waste of taxpayers' money and because they prop up inefficient firms, delaying the entry of new and more efficient competitors.
And a pro-market approach holds companies financially accountable for their mistakes — an essential policy if free markets are to produce sound decisions.
A pro-market party will fight tirelessly against letting firms become so big that they cannot be allowed to fail, since such firms may take risks that ordinary companies would never dream of.

I can imagine a few people on the left supporting some types of subsidies, but generally I don't think you'll get much disagreement here either (e.g. see Sachs on subsidies in the post above this one). The accountability thing sounds like a jab at government intervention to save the bank (as does the first point), but take a look at the latest proposal from Democrats that attempts to put the cost of bailouts on the companies themselves while still protecting the economy (as opposed to just letting it melt down). But go on...

A pro-market party should favor a robust safety net — for people, not companies. Of course, this safety net should be run on market principles as much as possible. Unemployment insurance should retain incentives for people to look for work, and the health-insurance industry should be opened up to competition. But defenders of markets cannot ignore the importance of providing such security for citizens.

The details would differ a bit, e.g. the health insurance competition part certainly differs from a Medicare for all structure many Democrats endorse (but not all), but the general idea of a "robust safety net" for people seems consistent with Democratic ideas, less so with Republican principles.

Besides robust safety nests, what else is on the long-time concern of Republican's list?

They also cannot ignore the nation's growing income inequality and the widespread loss of confidence that the future will be better than the past. The knee-jerk Democratic reaction is to give these poorer citizens entitlements disguised as rights.
The Republican response should focus on providing opportunities. Parents should have access to good schools for their kids, regardless of their financial means or where they live. The best way to deliver on that promise is through a voucher system.

Entitlements disguised as rights? Such as?  The general idea that some kids are disadvantaged by the education they receive has been a mainstay within the Democratic party for a long time, and quite a few Democrats endorse vouchers as part of the solution (even breaking up teacher's unions in some cases).

And concern over inequality? From Republicans? Generally Republicans argue that inequality isn't really increasing or as bad as you think (the attack the data when you don't like the answer approach), or that it's necessary to fuel the engine of capitalism.

What's next on the list of Democratic ideas disguised as Republican concerns?

Students should have better access to loans to finance their education because everyone gains from a better-educated work force. The unemployed should have access to retraining, which can also be designed through a voucher system.

Student loans, help with finding new employment? Yet again, strong Democratic ideas. The only thing new is to toss in a voucher system, but that's a debate about how best to reach the goal, not what the goal is (and again, vouchers aren't automatically rejected by all Democrats). I suppose you'll want to adopt health care as a Republican idea as well?

Health care should be available in the marketplace. The current system, in which only employers get a tax deduction for health insurance, reduces labor mobility and increases the cost of becoming unemployed.

What is the goal here? If it's to make health care affordable and available to everyone, simple saying it ought to be "in the marketplace" is far from enough. The incompleteness of the proposal makes this hard to evaluate (but given the proposals so far, you have to think the work "vouchers" would be involved in the solution).

Finally:

The U.S. has been the inspiration for all who believe in freedom, both political and economic. Its identity, however, is predicated on maintaining a political consensus that supports market values.
Growing income inequality, the financial crisis and the perceived unfairness of the market system are undermining this consensus. If Republicans don't stand up for markets, who will?

If standing up for markets means -- running down the list above in order -- reducing market power, regulating financial markets, eliminating subsidies, breaking up too big to fail firms, providing a robust safety net, overcoming income inequality, fixing schools, increasing the availability of student loans, providing retraining, and providing health care, then the answer is Democrats.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Israel's hamas blunder...

Israel's support for Hamas as a counterbalance to Fatah was probably a bad move, no?

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Market Structures: Perfect Competition

Our microecon class is working on different forms of market structures.  The first one we started with is Perfect Competition.
 
Perfect Competition
  • Fundamental stipulations
 
In a perfectly competitive market, participants, both consumes and producers are price-takers.  Price-taking means that they can't influence the market price--they must "take" the market price.  This is generally always true for consumers, but producers can influence market price of the good or product via their behavior.  Anyways... both producers and consumers are price-takers--the market price is given.
 
Perfectly competitive industries, where producers can't influence price aren't very common.  Individual farmers producing wheat or corn, pharmaceuticals after the patent has run out and generics hit the market; are examples of perfectly competitive markets.
 
None of the producers in a perfectly competitive market can have a large market share--they have have to be one of many firms in the market, none of whom create a very large percentage of the total industry output.
 
Consumers must consider all products equivalent--it has to be some kind of standardized product; a commodity that can't be differentiated by the consumer via preferences or tastes.
 
There has to be free entry and exit into the market.  It has to be easy for new firms to enter and for current firms to leave, there are no government regulations or problems with accessing key resources needed to produce that good.
 
------------------
I'm on the run... if I get time I'll move on to my notes on Production decisions in a perfectly competitive market.
 
The short and sweet of it?  Firms will produce at the point where Marginal Costs = Marginal Revenue.  Marginal Revenue, because the firms are price takers, will also be the demand curve--which is perfectly elastic (horizontal).  So Price will equal Marginal Revenue and the optimal point of production--the point at which the firm is trying to produce to will be where the firms marginal costs intersect the marginal revenue.  Which is at the market price (i.e. the demand curve).

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Delong on Milton Friedman...

Came across an old piece by Berkeley Economics Professor Brad Delong on Milton Friedman.
 

His worldview began with a bedrock belief in people and their ability to make judgments for themselves, and thus an imperative to maximize individual freedom. On top of that was layered a trust in free markets as almost always the best and most magical way of coordinating every conceivable task. On top of that was layered a powerful conviction that a look at the empirical facts -- a comparison, or a "marking to market," of one's beliefs with reality -- would generate the right conclusions. And crowning that was a fear and suspicion of government as an easily captured tool for the enrichment of cynical and selfish interests. Suffusing all was a faith in the power of argument and the primacy of reason. Friedman was an optimist. He was convinced people could be taught the truths of economics, and if people were properly taught, then institutions could be built to protect society as a whole against the corruption and overreach of the government.

And he did fear the government. He was a conservative of the old, libertarian school, from the days before the scolds had captured the levers of power in the conservative movement. He hated any government intrusion into people's private business. And he interpreted "people's private business" extremely widely. He detested the war on drugs, which he saw as a cruel and destructive breeder of crime and violence. He scorned government licensing of professionals -- especially doctors, who heard over and over again about how their incomes were boosted by restrictions on the number of doctors that made Americans sicker. He abhorred deficit spending -- again, he was a conservative from another era. He feared that cynical politicians could pretend that the costs of government were less than they were by pushing the raising of taxes to pay for spending off into the future. He sought to inoculate citizens against such political games of three-card monte. "Remember," he would say, "to spend is to tax."

This did not mean that government had no role to play. He endorsed the enforcement of property rights, adjudication of contract disputes -- the standard and powerful rule-of-law underpinnings of the market -- plus a host of other government interventions when empirical circumstances made them appropriate. Sometime empirical circumstances could win Friedman some unexpected allies. Left-wing Mayor Ken Livingstone's congestion tax on cars in central London is an idea straight out of Milton Friedman. Friedman's negative income tax is one of the parents of what is now America's largest anti-poverty program: the earned-income tax credit, which was greatly expanded by Bill Clinton. And, most important, government had a very powerful and necessary role to play in keeping the monetary system working smoothly through proper control of the money stock. If there was always sufficient liquidity in the economy -- enough but not too much -- then you could trust the market system to do its job. If not, you got the Great Depression, or hyperinflation.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

on campus conversations...

So I hit on the the stimulus this morning before school.  And then on campus I walked up on a discussion on the stimulus  that then moved on to another hobgoblin of conservative ideologues as well--global warming.
 
A few people were talking about unemployment.  One of the guys stated confidently that that the unemployment numbers proved that the stimulus plan didn't work.  A friend of mine pointed out to him that jobs are a lagging indicator (okay he didn't use that term specifically) and that increasing government spending is exactly what you want to do during a recession. 
 
The guy kind of flustered around about that not being true.
 
I mentioned that the idea that government spending is the wrong thing to do during a recession, like the idea that global warming isn't real--is commonly perpetuated on tv and mentioned a few resources that might be helpful. 
 
He chimed in... "the globe isn't warming... its cooling." 
 
Needless to say, we moved on.  Sigh.... I blame the media.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

I'll skip the... why was the first round so small and wasted on tax cuts that don't help...

and just ask when is round two of the stimulus coming?
 
Our economy is still facing a large output gap (Via the San Francisco Fed:)
 Gap
A weak recovery is in the works/happening now. 
 
Unemployment is going to be over 10%.  A substantial amount of unemployed or underutilized labor and capital is just sitting around.  We're going to be watching a lot more small and medium size banks fold...
 
State Budgets are going to be in worse shape next year than they were this year--as increased use of government services, a decline in revenue, and budget cuts further weakened state governments fiscal outlook. 
 
More money to the states as well as money directed at those who will spend it (rather than save it)... are going to be needed. 
 
I fear that Obama, just like on health care isn't going to take the lead.   A lack of political will--created a weak first stimulus mostly directed at tax cuts (which people for the most part save, defeating the whole.. you know... stimulus aspect of it). 
 
Getting a move on in regards to round two might help...
 
  

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Jobs won't return...

...until firms start increasing the hours of current workforce.
 
I saw some talking head on tv talking asked about when jobs will come back.  He hemmed and hawed(??) and couldn't give an answer.
 
Here's a simple metric... There has been a huge increase in the number of workers who have had their hours cutback.  You won't see firms hiring new workers until you see current workforce working a lot more.  About 8.8 million workers are reproting that they are involuntarily working part-time, which is a huge jump from recent recessions. 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Monday, October 26, 2009

America Spends A Lot on Defense...

Yesterday, congress appropriated a $680 billion for the Department of Defense in FY 2010. Chris Preble observes that, shockingly enough, this $680 billion isn’t even the whole bill:

The defense bill represents only part of our military spending. The appropriations bill moving through Congress governing veterans affairs, military construction and other agencies totals $133 billion, while the massive Department of Homeland Security budget weighs in at $42.8 billion. This comprises the visible balance of what Americans spend on our national security, loosely defined. Then there is the approximately $16 billion tucked away in the Energy Department’s budget, money dedicated to the care and maintenance of the country’s huge nuclear arsenal.

All told, every man, woman and child in the United States will spend more than $2,700 on these programs and agencies next year. By way of comparison, the average Japanese spends less than $330; the average German about $520; China’s per capita spending is less than $100.

Preble says that this enormous expenditure “flows directly from our foreign policy.” But it’s worth also saying that our foreign policy flows from the vast scope of our defense spending. My biggest concern about the war in Afghanistan isn’t overblown feasibility concerns, but the failure to take seriously David Obey’s point that we should put this in some kind of cost-benefit framework. Arne Duncan doesn’t have a $700 billion per year budget to play with as he tries to help American kids learn. Jay Rockefeller doesn’t get to say “I could make this health plan really good by kicking the ten year cost up to $7 trillion.” People are starving in Ethiopia for want of a fraction of the DOD’s daily budget in food aid.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Thursday, October 22, 2009

China growth underlines rapid rebound

China’s recovery accelerated in the third quarter as a result of the government’s massive lending programme with the economy growing at 8.9 per cent compared with the same period last year.
 
The National Statistics Bureau on Thursday said that the increase in investment and retail sales had also accelerated in September, underlining the rapid rebound in the economy that has taken place in recent months.
 
The expansion in the third quarter compared with year-on-year growth of 7.9 per cent in the second quarter and 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, when the country’s export sector was hit hard by the global crisis. In the first nine months, the economy expanded 7.7 per cent, much faster than any other major economy.

Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the NBS, said the economy was at a “crucial stage”. “The basis of the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated, and the insufficient external demand is still severe,” he said.

The sharp rebound in the economy has prompted calls for the government to begin withdrawing some of the stimulus it has injected, including a massive increase in bank loans. Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank, said in an article in Thursday’s Financial Times that China needed an “urgent” tightening monetary policy to prevent bubbles in stock and property prices.

The State Council indicated a shift in strategy on Wednesday when it said that China’s policy should focus both on controlling inflationary expectations and securing stable growth, the first time it had mentioned inflation since the crisis began. The statement has prompted speculation that the government could begin to restrict credit to banks or appreciate the currency in order to limit inflationary pressures.

 

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Hayek on Deflation and the Great Depression

Greg Ransom has found a new book with an interview done with Hayek in 1979.  In it, Hayek says the following:

“I agree with Milton Friedman that once the Crash had occurred, the Federal Reserve System pursued a silly deflationary policy.  I am not only against inflation but I am also against deflation.  So, once again, a badly programmed monetary policy prolonged the depression.”

Those Austrians who think deflation is always and everywhere a good phenomenon strongly overlap with those Austrians who wonder whether Hayek is really an Austrian (or a even a classical liberal) anyway, so I'm doubtful this will convince them of the claim that a concern with monetary deflation has been, and should be, a core part of Austrian monetary and macro theory.  However, it does, in fact, bolster the case for a monetary equilibrium reading of Hayek.

It is also useful to counter the claim that Hayek was a "liquidationist" in the sense often deployed by people like Brad DeLong, as well as the more general claim that Hayek thought we should do nothing during the depression.  By implication, if you think deflation is bad, you believe that the Fed (given its existence) should have behaved differently between 1930 and 33.  It could have done something to prevent the events that "prolonged the depression."

This also is some support for what I would call the Austrian-Monetarist-Interventionism explanation of why the Great Depression got started, got so deep so quickly, and lasted so long.  Each "school" (think Rothbard, F&S, and Higgs if you want authors) lines up with each element of the explanation in the order given.  Even Hayek agrees that traditional Austrian cycle theory alone can't explain the whole thing, even buttressed by Higgs or Cole & Ohanian.  If you want to explain why the Great Depression was both "great" and a "depression" not a recession, you need the Friedman and Schwartz story, and you'll have Hayek on your side.

Whether the same situation as we faced in 1930 was in place last fall remains a debatable question.  However, if velocity was falling in the way some folks believed, doing nothing would have invited a potential repeat of the early 30s, and now we can say with even more certainty that Hayek, at least, would have recommended that the Fed act to avoid it.  (Of course, nothing in this paragraph is an endorsement of the extreme to which the Fed went, nor the other really stupid things it did last fall and since.)

 
 

 
-
James A. Nichols IV
cell: (770) 312-6736
www.JimN2010.com
www.JimNichols4.com

"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."     ---Calvin Coolidge (1872 - 1933)

"I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians."    Charles De Gaulle (1890 - 1970)

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Freak or not... bad science is bad science..

Scientists have jumped on the Economists who wrote Freakanomics because of their chapter on Global Warming in there follow up book SuperFreakonomics.  Here is a pretty good wrap up via The Economist Expertise, and "expertise":

STEVEN LEVITT and Stephen Dubner have reprised their Freakonomics roles in "SuperFreakonomics", which is due out in just a few days. As it happens, some chapters from the book are already in circulation, including one on "global cooling" which has drawn quite a bit of criticism, including responses from respected climate scientists and environmental economists. Mssrs Dubner and Levitt have attempted to respond, but I find the criticism of their work to be quite compelling; it appears that the authors made a number of outright errors and generally opted to present their case in a manner aimed more at provoking controversy than informing, which is highly irresponsible given the subject matter. (You can follow links here, here, and here.)

One interesting point that a number of critics have made is that the Freakonomists' writing seems to be vastly different in quality when using research that Mr Levitt has himself produced (as was the case in the first book) than when addressing topics he has not previously discussed. This isn't all that difficult to understand; Mr Levitt no doubt chooses his research topics based on things like the quality of data available rather than the likelihood of a particular question being "hot button". And there are also very different publication standards for academic work than there are for popular publications.

But that doesn't mean that there can't be reputational blowback from a disastrous popular publication. Given that, it's a shame that Mr Levitt opted to dedicate a chapter to a subject—climate change—on which he doesn't have subject-area expertise and on which topic he doesn't use his methodological expertise. Instead, he simply deploys his reputational "expertise". This may make him some money, but it won't come without real costs.

And it's not like he didn't have plenty of real academic work to use. Matt Yglesias directs readers to an interesting paper co-written by Mr Levitt on the use of minimax strategies in professional sports. And just today, this paper popped up at NBER (co-written by Steven Levitt and Roland Fryer):

We document and analyze the emergence of a substantial gender gap in mathematics in the early years of schooling using a large, recent, and nationally representative panel of children in the United States. There are no mean differences between boys and girls upon entry to school, but girls lose more than two-tenths of a standard deviation relative to boys over the first six years of school. The ground lost by girls relative to boys is roughly half as large as the black-white test score gap that appears over these same ages. We document the presence of this gender math gap across every strata of society. We explore a wide range of possible explanations in the U.S. data, including less investment by girls in math, low parental expectations, and biased tests, but find little support for any of these theories. Moving to cross-country comparisons, we find that earlier results linking the gender gap in math to measures of gender equality are sensitive to the inclusion of Muslim countries, where in spite of women’s low status, there is little or no gender gap in math. 

Very interesting stuff. With the reputation Mr Levitt built for himself through the first book and his New York Times blog, he could easily have made himself millions of dollars with a sequel focused on these kinds of questions. But instead he and Mr Dubner wrote a chapter that differs dramatically in style and method from what we've all come to understand as the Freakonomics way.

That is an thought-provoking phenomenon in and of itself. I suspect Mr Levitt could say something quite interesting about the incentives facing academics with popular brands, if he weren't quite so involved with a natural experiment of his own making just now.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Obama is a socialist... right?

Nader on Obama's socialist agenda [sic]
  • His early months in office have been "very disappointing."
  • Obama is "a frightened man," who won't take on corporate power.
  • Obama is "conflict averse" - and a "harmony ideology type," who's being taken advantage of by the sharks in Congress, of both parties.
  • He's "Bush-Cheney redux" when it comes to military and foreign policy, "albeit with better speeches" to the Muslim world. Given Obama's handling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Nader wonders in amazement: "And they gave him the [Nobel] Peace Prize?"
  • I'm not sure about Obama being taken advantage of--he seems to be extremely shrewd and knows what he's doing.  Face it the Democrats are a center-right party... but get framed as leftwing extremists!
     
    sigh... 

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    When is it okay for the media to back a political agenda?

    Should the media be doing these kinds of things? 

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Saturday, October 17, 2009

    My hunch is this will be oveturned...yeah for Liberty????

    Ideology outside of reality and the relations of human beings an systemic forces is destructive to the society at large--just look at Marxism and the Soviet Union for one example...
     
    Another example of this is about to be implemented by the Supreme Court--
     
    A series of court decisions expected this fall could put the nation on track to return to turn-of-the-century campaign finance laws.

    This week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hear arguments in a case that opponents say could pave the way for political parties to raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, individuals, unions and anything else with a bank account.

    Last week, the same court announced it will review Federal Election Commission rules aimed at reining in outside independent groups, after two of its three-judge panels offered differing judgments on them.

    Next month, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans will hear arguments in a case that would essentially wipe out the post-Watergate rules against coordination between parties and candidates.

    And campaign finance foes and fans are awaiting a U.S. Supreme Court decision freeing corporations to use general treasury funds to finance movies attacking candidates, as well as a D.C. District Court ruling in another case that would permit the national party committees to once again collect “soft money” checks from businesses — a practice that was banned a century ago.

    “There is no end in sight. There are a lot of other cases in the pipeline,” said Paul Ryan, an attorney with the Campaign Legal Center. 
     

    When did the Roman Republic fall? What would the demise of our Republic look(ed) like?

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Expendable People?: A Human Rights Perspective on the Impact of Global Economic Migration on Georgia

    I'm headed to a conference hosted by Emory Law School this morning -- Expendable People?: A Human Rights Perspective on the Impact of Global Economic Migration on Georgia
     
    Here is some info on the event:
    The sixth annual Emory Public Interest Committee (EPIC) conference, Expendable People?: A Human Rights Perspective on the Impact of Global Economic Migration on Georgia, will be held Saturday, Oct. 17, in Tull Auditorium at Emory Law.

    The conference is free and open to the public. We ask that you register in advance. To register for the conference, click here. Practicing attorneys seeking CLE credit will be required to pay a fee. Please see below for more information.

    The conference aims to examine the human rights issues that accompany global economic migration. It will focus on three aspects of economic migration: (1) human trafficking, (2) the guest worker program and (3) the undocumented workforce.

    We seek to engage conference participants in an open discussion of each of these topics: their causes, incidences and effects—on those directly involved and on the greater Georgia community. The conference will serve as a space where individual, government and community responses to economic migration can be examined and even challenged. Specifically, we want to discuss the relationship between human rights and citizenship.

    Read more about the conference's speakers and panelists.

    See the conference schedule.

     

     

     

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Rush Limbaugh and the culture wars...

    Um... people.  I'm sorry but I don't care if Rush Limbaugh is a part owner of the Rams.
     
    He's been dropped from the group trying to buy the Rams because he "has complicated the deal."  Score one for the culture wars...
     

     

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Friday, October 16, 2009

    Ahh... the south....

    This is sad... and a reminder of some of the challenges Obama faces as a black man in getting his agenda and message out to people....
     
    La. justice of the peace cites concerns about any children couple might have

    HAMMOND, La. - A Louisiana justice of the peace said he refused to issue a marriage license to an interracial couple out of concern for any children the couple might have.

    Keith Bardwell, justice of the peace in Tangipahoa Parish, says it is his experience that most interracial marriages do not last long

    The guy said the "children will later suffer..."
     
    Um?

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Thursday, October 15, 2009

    One of the impacts of the ideological fringe taking over the Republican Party....

    The stimulus is working--we should have had more of it!  And here's hoping we can get another boost soon.
     
    Only problem we have to overcome is a broken ideology keeping good policy from getting passed....

    Christina Romer vs Political Reality

     I’ve seen a fair amount of commentary on the part of Ryan Lizza’s profile of the Obama economic team where Christina Romer recommends a $1.2 trillion stimulus proposal and they wind up with just a bit more than half of that out of deference to the tender sensibilities of the United States Senate. I’ve seen less commentary on this other part, where basically the same thing happen on financial system policy:

    Romer believed that the banks wouldn’t lend again until they were well capitalized. For banks in severe stress, she favored creating a government-backed “bad bank” to take the toxic assets off the banks’ books and then recapitalize them with government funds—essentially a version of nationalization, and what the Swedish government had done during that nation’s financial crisis of the early nineties. This argument was quickly rendered moot because of the cost. There wasn’t much money left in the TARP kitty, and any chance of getting more from Congress had ended with that morning’s news: A.I.G., which had received a hundred and seventy billion dollars in federal money, had handed out multimillion-dollar bonuses to the executives responsible for the company’s demise. Axelrod said, “The one thing that was absolutely clear was, we were not in a position to go back to Congress.”

    Axelrod’s argument seems absolutely sound. And Rahm Emannuel’s argument on the stimulus that congress wouldn’t appropriate $1.2 trillion also seems absolutely sound. But of course Romer’s arguments weren’t arguments about feasible legislative strategies. Of all the senior members of the Obama administration, Romer has by far the least experience with practical legislative politics and also has the job that’s the least concerned with practical legislative politics. And I think that it was in a lot of ways a masterstroke to appoint a very policy-focused academic with no practical legislative experience to the CEA job. When people work too long in Washington, their notions of what would be good policy in principle tend to become unduly corrupted by their knowledge of what’s possible in practice.

    But what Lizza is telling us is that on the two biggest pieces of macroeconomic management, the Obama administration is pursuing policies that its in-house expert on macroeconomic crisis management believed were far too timid. He’s also telling us that this was done primarily not because people disagreed with her analysis, but because they felt it wasn’t possible, legislatively speaking, to do what was objectively necessary. It’s a bit of a scary situation.

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Celebracion at White House!

    Cool.

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Tuesday, October 13, 2009

    White House: Fox News Is 'A Wing Of The Republican Party'

    This just in.... White House is stating the obvious...

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    @JimN2010 Cognitive Science will lead to better government and smarter policy...

    David Brooks was on the ball yesterday...
     

    When you go to an academic conference you expect to see some geeks, gravitas and graying professors giving lectures. But the people who showed up at the Social and Affective Neuroscience Society’s conference in Lower Manhattan last weekend were so damned young, hip and attractive. The leading figures at this conference were in their 30s, and most of the work was done by people in their 20s. When you spoke with them, you felt yourself near the beginning of something long and important.

    In 2001, an Internet search of the phrase “social cognitive neuroscience” yielded 53 hits. Now you get more than a million on Google. Young scholars have been drawn to this field from psychology, economics, political science and beyond in the hopes that by looking into the brain they can help settle some old arguments about how people interact.

    These people study the way biology, in the form of genes, influences behavior. But they’re also trying to understand the complementary process of how social behavior changes biology. Matthew Lieberman of U.C.L.A. is doing research into what happens in the brain when people are persuaded by an argument.

    Keely Muscatell, one of his doctoral students, and others presented a study in which they showed people from various social strata some images of menacing faces. People whose parents had low social status exhibited more activation in the amygdala (the busy little part of the brain involved in fear and emotion) than people from high-status families.

    Reem Yahya and a team from the University of Haifa studied Arabs and Jews while showing them images of hands and feet in painful situations. The two cultures perceived pain differently. The Arabs perceived higher levels of pain over all while the Jews were more sensitive to pain suffered by members of a group other than their own.

    Mina Cikara of Princeton and others scanned the brains of Yankee and Red Sox fans as they watched baseball highlights. Neither reacted much to an Orioles-Blue Jays game, but when they saw their own team doing well, brain regions called the ventral striatum and nucleus accumbens were activated. This is a look at how tribal dominance struggles get processed inside.

    Jonathan B. Freeman of Tufts and others peered into the reward centers of the brain such as the caudate nucleus. They found that among Americans, that region was likely to be activated by dominant behavior, whereas among Japanese, it was more likely to be activated by subordinate behavior — the same region rewarding different patterns of behavior depending on culture.

    All of these studies are baby steps in a long conversation, and young academics are properly circumspect about drawing broad conclusions. But eventually their work could give us a clearer picture of what we mean by fuzzy words like ‘culture.’ It could also fill a hole in our understanding of ourselves. Economists, political scientists and policy makers treat humans as ultrarational creatures because they can’t define and systematize the emotions. This work is getting us closer to that.

    The work demonstrates that we are awash in social signals, and any social science that treats individuals as discrete decision-making creatures is nonsense. But it also suggests that even though most of our reactions are fast and automatic, we still have free will and control.

    Many of the studies presented here concerned the way we divide people by in-group and out-group categories in as little as 170 milliseconds. The anterior cingulate cortices in American and Chinese brains activate when people see members of their own group endure pain, but they do so at much lower levels when they see members of another group enduring it. These effects may form the basis of prejudice.

    But a study by Saaid A. Mendoza and David M. Amodio of New York University showed that if you give people a strategy, such as reminding them to be racially fair, it is possible to counteract those perceptions. People feel disgust toward dehumanized groups, but a study by Claire Hoogendoorn, Elizabeth Phelps and others at N.Y.U. suggests it is possible to lower disgust and the accompanying insula activity through cognitive behavioral therapy.

    In other words, consciousness is too slow to see what happens inside, but it is possible to change the lenses through which we unconsciously construe the world.

    Since I’m not an academic, I’m free to speculate that this work will someday give us new categories, which will replace misleading categories like ‘emotion’ and ‘reason.’ I suspect that the work will take us beyond the obsession with I.Q. and other conscious capacities and give us a firmer understanding of motivation, equilibrium, sensitivity and other unconscious capacities.

    The hard sciences are interpenetrating the social sciences. This isn’t dehumanizing. It shines attention on the things poets have traditionally cared about: the power of human attachments. It may even help policy wonks someday see people as they really are.

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Amen...

    Whether it’s Newark, Detroit, parts of Chicago, South-Central Los Angeles, Camden, N.J. — take your pick — we’ve looked the other way for decades as the residents of hard-core inner-city neighborhoods struggled with overwhelming, life-threatening problems and a chronic shortage of resources, financial and otherwise.

    We’re having an intense national debate over whether to move ahead with nation-building in Afghanistan and to continue protecting the population in places like Kabul and Kandahar while all but ignoring the violence that is consuming the lives of boys and girls in Chicago, America’s third-largest city.

    Dozens of boys and girls of school-age and younger are murdered in Chicago every year. One hundred were killed there last year, according to the police. The blood of the young is spattered daily on the stoops, sidewalks and streets of American cities from coast to coast, and we won’t even take notice unless, for example, we can engage in the ghoulish delight of watching the murder played over and over again on video.

    In Newark, where some of the streets do look as bad as the scenes that were part of Conan’s comedy bit, the unemployment rate is 14.7 percent. Keeping kids in high school long enough to graduate is difficult. Drug dealing is a fallback employment option for men and boys who can’t find legitimate work.

    Other cities have the same problems, some to a greater degree. So what are we doing? While mulling the prospect of sending up to 40,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, we’ve stood idly by, mute as a stone, as school districts across the nation have bounced 40,000 teachers out of their jobs over the past year.

    That should tell you all you need to know about twisted national priorities.

    Even as teachers by the tens of thousands are walking the plank to unemployment, we’re learning, as The Times reported last week, that one in every 10 young male dropouts is locked up in jail or juvenile detention. As if that weren’t gruesome enough, we find that the figure for blacks is one in four. What would it take to get the perpetual crisis facing these young people onto the radar screens of the rest of America?

    Conan was just trying to be funny, but the reality behind his late-night humor is horrifying. In Detroit, the median sale price of a house has hovered around $8,000. Seventy percent of all murders in the Motor City go unsolved. Joblessness is off the charts. The school system is a catastrophe.

    I remember driving around Camden, which is right outside of Philadelphia, on a rainy afternoon. Young people with nothing to do — they had dropped out of school and had little or no chance of finding a job — were gathered on porches, saying little, staring the hours away. I had on a suit and was driving a nice car. More than one person that I approached thought I was either buying or selling drugs.

    The inner cities have been in a recession for decades. They’re in a depression now. Myriad issues desperately need to be addressed: employment, education, the foreclosure crisis, crime, alcohol and drug abuse, health care (including mental health treatment and counseling), child care for working parents and on and on and on.

    The purpose of government is to protect and empower its citizens.  Far too many humans slip through the cracks.  We end up paying the price through inefficient allocation of resources, a loss of worker productivity, and wasted tax payer dollars.
     
    When we invest in our citizens we all reap the rewards, and our nations prosperity rises...

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols

    Monday, October 12, 2009

    Jonathan Weiler on authoritarianism in American politics

    Great interview... go listen to it now! 

    Posted via email from Jim Nichols