The real missed opportunity in Obama’s first year

Clive Crook in the Financial Times: 

Measured against what different groups of voters thought he had promised – everything they desired – the administration’s performance looks poor. Measured against what voters were entitled to expect, it looks much better.

A year ago, the US feared a catastrophic economic collapse. The recession has been bad and the recovery is sluggish, but it could have been much worse. This is partly due to good luck and the economy’s resilience, but also to the fiscal stimulus and bold interventions of the administration and the Fed. One can argue about those policies. Still, a year ago, the country would have settled happily for the outcome so far.

Mr Obama’s other key domestic priority was healthcare reform. After months of wrangling, this is not quite in the bag. But the prospects look good. Reform along the lines of the bill passed by the Senate just before Christmas would be a great step forward. Again, one can argue about the details. But an individual health insurance mandate combined with the assurance of access to affordable coverage is a historic change – and despite the problems that will follow, far better than the status quo. How much credit Mr Obama deserves is debatable. Congress is writing this law, not the White House. Never mind: history will count it among his victories.

Foreign policy saw the biggest gap between expectations and any real likelihood of success. Foreigners and Americans naively thought the world would submit to Mr Obama’s charm. It did not. Yes, he brought US diplomacy back from the dead – but diplomacy is a means to an end, not an end in itself. It must be admitted that the rewards for Mr Obama’s outreach on China, Iran and the Middle East have been meagre at best. Yet this was more because the issues are so difficult, and US power so constrained, than because the approach was wrong.

Afghanistan underlines the point. The US had no easy choices. Mr Obama took too long to make up his mind, and muddled the message by talking of an early withdrawal – but in the end did the right thing in committing more forces to the war. The alternatives were worse.

Earlier this month Mr Obama said he thought his first year rated “a solid B plus”. My colleague Edward Luce commented that this was a perhaps a plus too far. I think that is right. I give a B as well. That is a letdown if you were hoping for summa cum laude, but still.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols