Massachusetts Senate vote likely to be close

Financial Times:

On  Monday, polls showed that the race was either tied or leaning in Mr Brown’s favour. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted for Politico, an online news site, showed the Republican leading his rival by nine points – 52 to 43 per cent.

Republicans were capitalising on Democratic panic by framing the special election as a referendum on Mr Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.

“I have no doubt that the people of Massachusetts are looking at this race as a way to send Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama a message to stop this spending,” said John Boehner, the House minority leader.

Charlie Cook, the non-partisan election analyst, said that was only partially true. Mr Cook said independent voters – roughly half the state’s electorate – were strongly favouring Mr Brown, not as a rebuke of Mr Obama directly, but because they held the Democratic-controlled Congress in “exceedingly low regard”. He added it was possible that Ms Coakley could win Tuesday’s race by one to two points, but that the more likely outcome put Mr Brown on top by a two to three-point margin.

“The economy and jobs are dominating their focus, but they see the national focus on healthcare and, to some extent, climate change. They seem to be reluctant to elect another Democrat who will get there and vote like the other ones,” he added.

In Washington, attention has been focused on what tactics could be deployed by Democratic leaders, who are in talks on a final healthcare proposal, if they lose their 60th Senate vote.

Under one scenario, the House would have to vote on and pass the version of the bill already passed by the Senate without alterations. Another route would be to delay the certification of Mr Brown’s victory in Massachusetts and allow the Senate to vote on the amended House bill with its old majority of 60.

Mrs Pelosi, speaker of the House, on Monday sought to play down the idea that a victory by Mr Brown would derail the effort to pass a healthcare bill.

“Certainly the dynamic will change depending on what happens in Massachusetts,” Ms Pelosi told reporters in California. “Just the question of how we would proceed. But it doesn’t mean we won’t have a health care bill.”

“Let’s remove all doubt. We will have health care one way or another,” she said

Posted via email from Jim Nichols