Thursday, August 20, 2009

links to read... while I go eat dinner

Replay of 1930?

Jobless Claims data

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 576k, 26k more than expected and up 15k from the prior week which was revised up by 3k. This brings the 4 week average up to 570k from 566k. Continuing Claims were 26k more than estimated and up 2k from last week. The insured unemployment rate was 4.7%, unchanged with the prior week. Those filing for Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which includes those that have exhaused their 26 weeks of continuing claims, rose by 92k to 2.878mm, a new high in this cycle. Those receiving extended benefits, which stretch past the life of EUC, fell by 48k to 401k and we’ll see if this is occurring because all unemployment benefits are running out for these particular individuals or it’s because they are finding new jobs. Because the pace of hiring is still extremely sluggish, it is unfortunately likely the former. Bottom line, the labor market remains very difficult.

Investment in non-transferable, intangible capital in Mexico and drug decriminalization

What "Academic Standards"?

The only academic standards I know about for academic economists is "don't rock the boat" and "go along to get along".

Terrorist T-Shirts

How can people have been arrested for wearing anti-Bush T-shirts, while assault guns are ok?


"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste."

In the Confiscation of American Prosperity, I wrote: "Since the election of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, every Democratic administration with the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s has been more conservative -- often far more conservative -- than the previous Democratic administration. Similarly, every elected Republican administration, with the single exception of George Herbert Walker Bush’s, has been more conservative than the previous Republican administration." At least, Obama has made sure that I will now have to revise a second edition.

Tax Credit for Buying a Hybrid or Diesel Car

The 2009 budget deficit—How did we get here?

In March 2009, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a baseline deficit of $1.67 trillion, or 11.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) for fiscal year 2009. This was up from a deficit of $459 billion in fiscal year 2008, or 3.2% of GDP, and a reversal from surpluses a decade ago. These growing federal deficits are the result of four primary factors: the 2001 and 2003 tax changes; the external effects of the current recession; increased Bush-era spending, including spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; and the various short-term responses to the recession, including the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and financial market bailouts. The recession itself is the most important cause, responsible for just under half of the deterioration. The ARRA constitutes less than a tenth of the total deterioration since 2001.

What's really different about this recession?

 the increase in people reporting that they are involuntarily working part-time rather than full-time is considerably higher in this recession than in past recessions. Although the increase in these workers has moderated some since the spring of this year, the number of people in the category of working part-time for economic reasons remains at 8.8 million, well above the level of past contractions in both absolute and relative terms.

 

Posted via web from Jim Nichols

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