Brazil’s presidential poll heads for run-off

Financial Times:

For most of the past four months, since her candidacy was officially declared, Ms Rousseff has been content to bask in Mr Lula da Silva’s popularity. Meanwhile, Mr Serra has failed to present either a critique or an alternative to the president’s powerful mixture of tight monetary policy and generous social spending.

Business leaders, the natural constituency of the former governor of São Paulo, have griped about the growing role of the state in Brazil’s economy, championed by Ms Rousseff, and the need for fiscal and other market-friendly reforms, while complaining about his reluctance to take the initiative.

In a televised debate before the poll Mr Serra ducked the chance of direct exchanges with Ms Rousseff in a lacklustre performance.

Political analysts said it would be impossible to avoid a potentially bruising confrontation in a run-off between two candidates.

Furthermore, the second round will boost the standing of Ms Silva, Mr Lula da Silva’s former environment minister and no relation, who resigned first from his government and then from his party after public disagreements with senior ministers, including Ms Rousseff.

Merval Pereira, a political commentator, had said the second round could see Ms Silva in the role of kingmaker and that her support had already been courted by senior figures in Mr Serra’s party, including Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the former president.

Investors have to date largely ignored the election, believing it to be a non-event on the assumption that neither Ms Rousseff nor Mr Serra would deviate much from the orthodox macroeconomic policies pursued by Mr Lula da Silva and Mr Cardoso over the past 16 years.

Analysts have believed that, even if Ms Rousseff failed to win on Sunday, she would go on to victory in the second round – an assumption that now looks questionable.