WSJ:
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey expect the recession to end in September, though most say it won't be until the second half of 2010 that the economy recovers enough to bring down unemployment.
Econbrowser notes:
The survey was conducted between April 3-6. Thus, they came before the trade release for February. Since the trade balance was above consensus, conditional nowcasts of GDP have probably risen [2].
On the other hand, the OECD forecast cited in this post implies continued decline throughout 2009. I'm not certain why the OECD is so gloomy (or alternatively, why the US-based forecasters are so optimistic). Using the OECD forecast and the CBO potential, the output gap will be 10.9% (log terms) by 2010q4. Perhaps this is in part due to a more pessimistic assessment of potential GDP (eyeballing the "Output Gap" table in Appendix 1.2 of the March OECD Economic Outlook, it seems that the OECD's estimate of potential is about 1.2% less CBO's).
Econbrowser also has some good graphs to go along with it...
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