Last week in the economy...

Calculated Risk has a wrap up of last week:

 

Retail Sales decline in May

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 1.2% from April to May (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 6.9% from May 2009 (easy comparison).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows the increase in final demand ex-gasoline has been sluggish.

Retail sales are up 8% from the bottom, but still off 4.6% from the pre-recession peak.

Mortgage Purchase Applications decline 35% over last four weeks

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The purchase index has collapsed following the expiration of the tax credit suggesting home sales will fall sharply too. This is the lowest level for the purchase index since February 1997. From the MBA:

“Purchase and refinance applications dropped this week, even after an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. Purchase applications are now 35 percent below their level of four weeks ago, as homebuyers have not yet returned to the market following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit at the end of April,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

Rail Traffic Softens in May

The Association of American Railroads reported traffic in May 2010 was up 15.8% compared to May 2009 - and traffic was still 11.8% lower than in May 2008.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads. Traffic increased in 18 of 19 major commodity categories YoY.

From AAR:

U.S. railroads averaged 294,758 carloads per week in April 2010 and 288,793 in March 2010. Thus, May 2010’s average was actually down slightly from those months ... One month does not a trend make, but it would obviously be worrisome if the decline continued.

Trade Deficit increases slightly in April

The Census Bureau reports:

[T]otal April exports of $148.8 billion and imports of $189.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.3 billion, up from $40.0 billion in March, revised. April exports were $1.0 billion less than March exports of $149.8 billion. April imports were $0.8 billion less than March imports of $189.9 billion.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through April.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Although both imports and exports were off slightly in April, both have been increasing sharply - but are still below the pre-crisis levels. Once again China and oil are the major contributors to the trade deficit.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols