Primaries Offer Gauge of Anti-Incumbent Mood

Bloomberg:

This year’s broadest measure of anti- incumbent sentiment will be taken tomorrow in party primaries that include Arkansas and Pennsylvania contests where the careers of two U.S. senators may be derailed.

Senators Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, both Democrats, are fighting challengers seeking to deny them nominations for new terms.

The muscle of the Tea Party protest movement will also be tested in a Kentucky Senate primary that pits a candidate backed by the state’s Republican establishment against the son of Representative Ron Paul of Texas.

And in a special election for the Pennsylvania House seat vacated by the death of Democratic Representative John Murtha, a Republican win may be a bellwether for potential gains for the party in November.

“You don’t want to be an insider, you don’t want to be an incumbent, you don’t want to be from Washington and you probably don’t want to be a Democrat,” pollster Doug Schoen, a former strategist for President Bill Clinton, said of the political atmosphere. “It isn’t a terminal disease, but it’s pretty darn close.”

With nationwide unemployment at 9.9 percent, Republicans are trying to position themselves in the midterm elections to reduce Democratic House and Senate majorities -- or perhaps take control of one or both chambers.

‘Parties Are Polarizing’

Tomorrow’s contests follow the Utah state Republican convention’s May 8 vote that ended three-term Senator Bob Bennett’s re-nomination bid, and the May 11 primary loss in West Virginia of 14-term Representative Alan Mollohan, a Democrat.

Schoen predicts Specter will join the political casualties.

“The parties are polarizing,” he said. “As the Democrats polarize to the left and the Republicans to the right, there is no room for an Arlen Specter in either of the major parties.”

Posted via email from Jim Nichols