Thursday, April 30, 2009

enduring misconceptions about modeling... its not always about prediction


Sixteen Reasons Other Than Prediction to Build Models

1.9
But, more to the point, I can quickly think of 16 reasons other than prediction (at least in this bald sense) to build a model. In the space afforded, I cannot discuss all of these, and some have been treated en passant above. But, off the top of my head, and in no particular order, such modeling goals include:

  1. Explain (very distinct from predict)
  2. Guide data collection
  3. Illuminate core dynamics
  4. Suggest dynamical analogies
  5. Discover new questions
  6. Promote a scientific habit of mind
  7. Bound (bracket) outcomes to plausible ranges
  8. Illuminate core uncertainties.
  9. Offer crisis options in near-real time
  10. Demonstrate tradeoffs / suggest efficiencies
  11. Challenge the robustness of prevailing theory through perturbations
  12. Expose prevailing wisdom as incompatible with available data
  13. Train practitioners
  14. Discipline the policy dialogue
  15. Educate the general public
  • Reveal the apparently simple (complex) to be complex (simple)
  • Posted via web from jimnichols's posterous

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