Aljazeera English reports on the anxiety in the Arab world about Iran's increased power..

Juan Cole points out that "It is striking that Western anxieties about Iran often depict the regime as "medieval," but what they are really afraid of appears on the contrary to be Iranian modernity."

Israel's blunder?

"They even killed the cats!"

The Israelis' brutal murder of hundreds of innocent Gazans, and wounding of thousands of women and children, in the war they just concluded will rebound on them in some horrible way. The campaign likely has already probably ensured the reelection in Iran of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had faced a tough campaign this June. Likewise, the war much weakened the Palestinian Authority and the Fatah party of PA president Mahmoud Abbas, because the Palestinian public perceived it to be implicated in the attack on Gaza. The US and Israel won't talk to Hamas, and if Fatah has been discredited with the Palestinians, then the Iraelis really have no one to talk too. That may suit them now, but timeis not on Israel's side.

I recommend to both sides Leo Tolstoy's short story, "A Lost Opportunity."

democracy in action?

Israel bans Arab parties from running in upcoming elections

from UN on the ground...

At least 30 killed in IDF strike on Gaza school; IDF: Troops fired in self-defense

"There's nowhere safe in Gaza. Everyone here is terrorized and traumatized," said John Ging, the top UN official in Gaza, blaming the international community for allowing the violence to continue.

"I am appealing to political leaders here and in the region and the world to get their act together and stop this," he said, speaking at Gaza's largest hospital. "They are responsible for these deaths."

Whats the plan again?

Israel is all tactics and no strategy

One thing I'm struck by is just how little the Israeli government seems to have thought things through. Yes, we know that plans were in the works for something like six months. Yes, Hamas was clearly surprised on a tactical level, but the group must have been expecting to be hit sooner or later.

But what is the exit plan here? Pound Hamas until they cry uncle? And why would Israel be willing to trade some temporary advantages in Gaza for a number of strategic setbacks: the effective end of the Annapolis process, a possible collapse of the peace track with Syria, worldwide opprobrium, a reinvigorated radical camp in Iran, the further undermining of pro-Western regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and a Hamas that may in fact emerge stronger vis-à-vis the ever-shrinking Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction?

Israel's long-term strategic goal is the elimination of Hamas control of Gaza.

Analysis: Battling toward the collapse of the Hamas regime

After the Hamas takeover in June 2007, Israel imposed a regime of economic sanctions on Gaza, constricting the flow of goods and materials into Gaza via its border crossings. The idea was gradually to undermine the popularity of Hamas in Gaza, while at the same time bolstering Abbas.

Israel enjoyed considerable success in this approach. While the diplomatic "peace process" with Abbas didn't move very far, the West Bank enjoyed an economic boomlet, as Israel removed checkpoints and facilitated the movement of capital, goods, workers and foreign tourists. So while Gaza languished under sanctions, with zero growth, the West Bank visibly prospered - reinforcing the message that "Islamic resistance" is a dead end.

Hamas, from the outset, sought to break out of what it has called the Israeli "siege" by firing rockets into Israel. Its quid pro quo was an end to Hamas rocket fire in exchange for a lifting of the Israeli "siege." When Israel and Hamas reached an agreement for "calm" last June, Hamas hoped the sanctions would be lifted as well, and Israel did increase the flow through the crossing points, by about 50 percent. Fuel supplies were restored to previous levels.

But Hamas was fully aware that sanctions were slowly eroding its base and contradicting its narrative that "resistance" pays. This is why it refused to renew the "calm" agreement after its six-month expiration, and renewed rocket fire.

The PR campaign

Israel has been forced to revise their story of late through a concerted public relations campaign.

Just last January, Olmert told the Knesset that there is "no need to get all fired up" about the rockets, and a major military operation in Gaza would be "out of proportion to the pressures we face." Public Security Minister Avi Dichter declared in July 2006 that disengagement was a success despite the rocket attacks, because "10 months without any Israeli being killed" from Gaza "is an extraordinary achievement"; that same month, former premier Ariel Sharon's chief strategist, Dov Weisglass, said the rockets do not detract from disengagement's success, because "the physical damage they do is not great." In short, daily rocket fire is unimportant as long as nobody gets killed.

The mispreception is that this operation is about the missiles that are being lobbed into Israel, but its actually and deterrence and intimidation

Mark Heller, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said that that energy reflected the deep feeling among average Israelis that the country had to regain its deterrent capacity.

“There has been a nagging sense of uncertainty in the last couple years of whether anyone is really afraid of Israel anymore,” he said. “The concern is that in the past — perhaps a mythical past — people didn’t mess with Israel because they were afraid of the consequences. Now the region is filled with provocative rhetoric about Israel the paper tiger. This operation is an attempt to re-establish the perception that if you provoke or attack you are going to pay a disproportionate price.”

the humanitarian crisis continues to grow worse...

Gaza civilians tell 'Post' their city has 'gone backward 50 years'

Meanwhile, United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) officials said on Sunday that contrary to statements made by Israeli officials, there is a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

"Bread and wheat are going to run out extremely rapidly, and people are going to start getting extremely hungry," said UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness. "Medical supplies are in critically short supply. When you have a situation where houses are being blown up and women and children are being maimed, I would say that's a humanitarian crisis."

Israel is still blocking humanitarian convoys.

From CFR

Gaza Land Raids

The conflict between Israel and Hamas intensified significantly on Saturday as Israeli ground troops launched a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip. The New York Times reports Israeli tanks and soldiers have pushed deep into Gaza, taking control of some areas from which militants have fired rockets into Israel, and cutting a swath through the territory in order to surround Gaza City. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-5Pp6CD4xEI7g6%403867674-6sN7.iv5ZI1xE Despite Israeli efforts to control regions along its border with Gaza, the Times reports Palestinian militants continued lobbing rockets into southern Israel through much of Sunday.

The BBC reports more than 500 people have been killed in Gaza since fighting started ten days ago, and some 2,500 more have been wounded. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-YYjVwRtqFt2Rg%403867675-8iPY1he/A9p8k Al-Jazeera reports on casualties among Palestinian civilians. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-90YFLn7AeMcK6%403867676-Kq5A4Ch.RqLq6

Israel's push into Gaza comes despite a series of international calls for a ceasefire. Two high-level diplomatic missions to the region are being spearheaded separately by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a delegation of EU officials (AFP). http://m1e.net/c?69785333-9ooQRjGMZP2Po%403867677-6dYcwlw9XCO/M U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also called for a ceasefire (AP), http://m1e.net/c?69785333-8BzM51LurIIdQ%403867678-flL15eksSXvhw as have senior officials from Britain's foreign ministry (Guardian). http://m1e.net/c?69785333-eSYH1LIuYjBRA%403867679-v3dFXFimAsTTM

Among Arab leaders, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah met this weekend with Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an effort to raise money to assist Palestinians and bring the Israeli raids to an end (Arab News). http://m1e.net/c?69785333-6KmiKWW75ZyBE%403867680-Y8ORCUrmfjUQk Iranian and Syrian officials also held bilateral talks on how to help Gaza residents (Fars). http://m1e.net/c?69785333-RV1xUev6s7ylE%403867681-VMIfwTawSvwHc Meanwhile, the Israeli paper Haaretz reports Egyptian officials will meet today with leaders from Hamas and may press them to accept an immediate truce. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-1PIB.hoqR96rk%403867682-4mbAsZLk.Z.8s

Background and Analysis:

- The BBC has a map and timeline detailing Israeli troop movements within Gaza. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-4Rbc1MufF7G3Q%403867683-MCrP7PaniGpt2

- The Middle East Times surveys Arab media reaction to the flare-up. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-MGyq/ZWaAkVnc%403867684-6JWjtu0shZRI2

- CFR.org's Crisis Guide on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict examines the roots of the region's problems. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-MXiCAzjCJTET2%403867685-dpc6oUgg/l.Ls

- CFR's Steven Cook discusses what the current fighting might mean for the incoming Obama administration. http://m1e.net/c?69785333-oa9bOIh3foEa6%403867686-0VAclBisYWAGM

If you or I were a Palestinian

something to think about

On operation cast lead

I'm glad i'm not the only one that is dismayed by Obama's recent silence on the crisis in gaza. In fact I find it very worrisome for those of us who want to see the Democrats go from a center right party to something a little more to the left if not center.

But I'm perplexed by Jason's comment

I'm not taking any side here because I believe would should stay out of the conflict entirely,

Seeing as how we are helping subsidize this little slaughter, we're knee deep in the conflict whether we like it or not.

Also because Israel is helping to empower Osama Bin Ladin with this atrocity, and weaken its own security, it might be wise, from our own national security standpoint, to not "stay out" of this conflict.

I read his "taking sides," statement as claiming one is either for Isreal or for Hamas. That would be terribly simplistic to one of the truly complex issues of our era.

Jason is one of the few commentators that I have come across on the right that has some substance and depth to his arguments and positions. Hopefully he'll go a little more indepth on such an important issue.

Robert Fisk re: operation cast lead

Leaders Lie, Civilians Die, and Lessons of History are Ignored

lets hope we don't reach this point...

Israel jails Hamas speaker Dweik

An Israeli military court has sentenced the speaker of the Palestinian parliament to three years in prison for belonging to an illegal organisation.

Although i'm sure some people will tell me i'm wrong and that my opinion should fall under the tag liberty as pathology

Why the shoe?

Could it be...

One shoe the living?
4 million Iraqis displaced since war began: Oxfam

The report by Oxfam and NCCI, a network of aid organizations working in Iraq, also highlighted other dire statistics:

Four million Iraqis regularly cannot buy enough food.
70 per cent are without adequate water supplies, compared to 50 per cent in 2003.
28 per cent of children are malnourished, compared to 19 per cent before the 2003 invasion.
92 per cent of Iraqi children suffer learning problems, mostly due to the climate of fear.

One shoe for the 151,000 dead?

The authors of the WHO/Iraqi study, published last night in the New England Journal of Medicine, say that the new number, which could be anywhere between 104,000 and 223,000 allowing for misreporting, "points to a massive death toll in the wake of the 2003 invasion and represents only one of the many health and human consequences of an ongoing humanitarian crisis".

I dunno...

but some folks are baffled...

Juan Williams: we destroyed your country, how dare you disrespect our leader!

Because Bush has been such a defender of the views of governments who were being responsive to public opinion

sigh....

good point

Juan Cole on the SOFA 2011 withdrawl date:

Whether the U.S. withdrawal will allow a resurgence of violence is a question we can't know the answer to. But it should be pointed out that, while the United States has been there, tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, have died in violence. Entire cities have changed their social complexion through violence. There's been ongoing killing and destruction.

So the U.S. presence has not been a guarantee of social peace in any case.