My main observations at this second panel were:
- Some of the infrastructure spending in the stimulus package would pass a cost-benefit test even apart from the recession. For example, CBO’s analysis of infrastructure investment last year concluded that “additional spending of up to tens of billions of dollars each year on transportation infrastructure projects” could be justified as having benefits that exceed the costs. We warned that economic returns on specific projects vary widely, so specific investments should be selected carefully. In addition, we explained that some of the additional spending could be avoided by creating incentives to use existing infrastructure more efficiently—such as congestion pricing, which we analyzed more fully earlier this year. Still, additional targeted infrastructure investment could be appropriate even in normal times. Moreover, these are not normal times, and it may be appropriate to undertake more immediate infrastructure spending than otherwise in order to put idle resources to use.
- CBO projected that infrastructure spending approved in the stimulus legislation would generate outlays—and thus economic stimulus—only gradually. For example, we are looking for increases in federal highway spending to be 10 percent of the amount appropriated in the rest of fiscal year 2009, 25 percent in FY 2010, 20 percent in FY 2011, and a declining share thereafter. Although the sluggishness of this projected spend-out surprised some observers, we explained that the need to draft plans, solicit bids, enter into contracts, and then to undertake the work (during appropriate weather) had led previous increases in budgetary resources for highways to be followed by increases in outlays with a measurable lag. Lags in other areas of infrastructure spending can be even longer, especially where programs are new or receive significant boosts in funding relative to recent years—descriptions that fit provisions in the stimulus package focused on weatherization and broadband expansion among others. CBO projects that total infrastructure outlays resulting from the stimulus package will peak in 2010 and 2011 but will remain significant for a number of years.
- Very early data on the use of funds approved in the stimulus package are consistent with this perspective. For example, the Department of Transportation has reported that $7 billion has been obligated for highway spending but only a few million federal dollars have been spent.
Budgetary Resources and Outlays for Highways
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Infrastructure Outlays as a Result of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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