GA-Sen, GA-Gov: Isakson Surprisingly Weak, Gov Race A Tossup

Daily Kos:

Research 2000's latest poll takes us to the great state of Georgia, and tests several possible matchups for the United States Senate race (featuring incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson) and the gubernatorial race (featuring a cast of thousands).

We were not expecting much from the Senate numbers, as Isakson is generally considered more or less safe, if not invulnerable. So the results took us somewhat by surprise.

We tested two guys who probably aren't going to run: former Governor Roy Barnes (who seems to have his eye trained on a return to Atlanta, as opposed to Washington), and U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall (who seems content holding a solidly Republican seat in the House). They polled surprisingly well:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/27-29. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)

Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 47
Roy Barnes (D) 43

Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 48
Jim Marshall (D) 40

Who knew? Isakson is under 50%, and just four points up on the former Governor. Furthermore, his favorability is really low, at just 47/41 favorable/unfavorable. One would have expected much stronger numbers from Isakson, who is generally considered the reasonable, likable alternative to Saxby Chambliss.

We used Barnes and Marshall as stand-ins for "strong Democrat". Barnes will run for Governor if he runs for anything, and Marshall has shown no indication that he wants to move up. But this could turn into an interesting flanking race if some wealthy self-funder or enterprising young State Senator were to take a flier.

Speaking of the Governor's race, we polled that, too. We pitted Republicans John Oxendine (state Insurance Commissioner) and Karen Handel (Secretary of State) against Democrats Barnes, Thurbert Baker (Attorney General), and David Poythress (former Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner).

This race is wide open.

John Oxendine (R) 46
Roy Barnes (D) 44

John Oxendine (R) 47
Thurbert Baker (D) 42

John Oxendine (R) 47
David Poythress (D) 43

Roy Barnes (D) 45
Karen Handel (R) 39

Thurbert Baker (D) 42
Karen Handel (R) 40

David Poythress (D) 43
Karen Handel (R) 39

All three Democrats trail Oxendine by a little bit, and lead Handel by a little bit.

We did not poll the primary, but what polling there has been (and conventional wisdom) suggest that the primary is Barnes' to lose if he runs, and Baker's to lose if Barnes doesn't run.

If all three candidates are in, it is possible that Baker (the only African-American in the race) could take the lion's share of the black vote in both a primary and a runoff. Depending on how substantial black turnout is, that alone could make him the nominee.

Everyone in the field enjoys positive favorability, including President Obama:

                  Favorable  Unfavorable    Net

Karen Handel (R)     39         21          18
Thurbert Baker (D)   39         22          17
Jim Marshall (D)     41         25          16
David Poythress (D)  37         25          12
Roy Barnes (D)       45         35          10
John Oxendine (R)    44         35           9
Johnny Isakson (R)   47         41           6
Barack Obama (D)     49         46           3

Again, the Isakson numbers are the ones that really stick out.

Posted via web from jimnichols's posterous