The trucks won't load themselves 11.29.2010 morning links

I'm headed to work here are your mornings links/weekend/turkey digesting recap...

 

quote for the day:

He attacked everything in life with a mix of extraordinary genius and naive incompetence, and it was often difficult to tell which was which.  --Douglas Adams

 

 The recent improvement in economic news http://goo.gl/f8Lfz
David Brooks is Upset that the Politicians Are Listening to Voters

UN condemns killing of aid worker in Mindanao http://goo.gl/fb/qohPE

Reagan Budget Director: GOP Has Abandoned Fiscal Responsibility By Adopting ‘Theology’ Of Tax Cuts

Former Republican Sen. Warns GOP May ‘Have Gone So Far Overboard That We Are Beyond Redemption’

CBO: Recovery Act Raised GDP And Lowered Unemployment But Effects Are ‘Expected To Wane’

One Size Doesn't Fit ...

Increasing taxes

More on the Damaging Implications of Corporate Cash-Hoarding

Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK → ?

Tax Hikes, Status Competitiveness, and Social Stratification

Asian Stocks, Commodities Gain on Ireland Aid; Dollar Near Two-Month High - Bloomberg http://goo.gl/kOjui

NFL Players' Union Leader Says Lockout `Near Certainty' for Next Season

 Animation: Why is health care reform so difficult

E Pluribus Unum and Our Finest Hour

Unemployment extensions end soon

Ireland Wins $113 Billion Aid; Germany Drops Threat on Bonds - Bloomberg http://goo.gl/pxYIz

Marcus Aurelius http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marcus-aurelius/

Lacking All Conviction

Analysis: Wikileaks - Not damaging, vindicating http://goo.gl/CETb6

Winning the Class War -  http://goo.gl/nKu6g

Experts question whether patients will use performance data use performance data to choose their care Analysis http://bit.ly/i9Pkbz

Quantitative easing the renminbi and China http://bit.ly/fyaztn

"Starve the Beast" a crackpot theory http://bit.ly/eVbyog

Should the Fed be stripped of its employment mandate? Or stripped of power? http://bit.ly/elsZQk

Town may seize factory from owner http://bit.ly/hAzEBx

The two biggest lies of George W. Bush http://bit.ly/ercfn5

What the Republicans really want http://bit.ly/eZydrH

We need more health care reform http://bit.ly/fbDonw

Economics and Economic Justice (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy) http://goo.gl/WP98g

Market Failure Cannot Be Resolved Without Regulation | Angry Bear http://goo.gl/mDu2J

Paul Ryan, Arpit Gupta on Monetary Policy « Rortybomb http://goo.gl/XKvZn

 

The recent improvement in economic news

Calculated Risk gives a run down of recent improvements in the economy:

• The October employment report showed a gain of 151,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the most since April ex-Census. Expectations are for a similar gain in November, although probably not enough jobs added to push down the unemployment rate.

• The BEA estimated real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q3. This is still sluggish, but an improvement from the 1.7% growth rate in Q2.

• The Personal Income and Outlays report for October indicated incomes grew at a 0.5% rate (month-to-month), and it appears PCE has grown at about a 3% annualized rate over the last three months. The personal saving rate was 5.7% in October, and although I expect the rate to increase a little more - it appears a majority of the adjustment is behind us (a rising saving rate is a drag on personal consumption).

• The 4-week average of initial weekly unemployment claims has declined to 436,000 last week from over 480,000 at the end of August. The weekly reading was 407,000 last week; the lowest since July 2008.

• Most regional manufacturing surveys, with the exception of the NY Fed survey (empire state), has shown a pickup in manufacturing. This suggests the manufacturing sector is still improving (the ISM manufacturing index for November will be released on Wednesday).

• Trucking and rail traffic improved in October, although the Ceridian diesel fuel index was weak.

• The Architecture Billings Index (a leading indicator for commercial real estate) is near flat - suggesting investment in commercial structures such as hotels, offices and malls will stop contracting next year. (addition by subtraction!)

• Even small business optimism has improved slightly.

Most of the reasons for the recent slowdown are still with us - less stimulus spending, the end of the inventory adjustment, problems in Europe and a slowdown in China, and cutbacks at the state and local level - but it appears Residential investment (RI) has bottomed and will most likely add to GDP growth in 2011. I believe the RI drag is now behind us, and RI is usually the best leading indicator for the economy.

The data is still mixed and fits with my general view of a sluggish and choppy recovery (my view since the spring of 2009). Although I don't see a sharp increase in growth, I think the pace of recovery will probably pick up a little bit in 2011, and I'll take the over on the consensus view of 2.5% GDP growth in 2011. My guess is 3%+ GDP growth in 2011 - still not a strong recovery given the amount of slack in the economy, but an improvement over 2010.

Unfortunately there probably will not be enough growth to significantly reduce the unemployment rate in 2011.

Treasury 30-Year Returns as Market Bellwether as Fed Policy Propels Trade

Bloomberg:

For the first time since the 1990s the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond is becoming the benchmark for the world’s biggest debt investors.

The Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $600 billion of U.S. government debt will focus about 86 percent of its purchases in notes due in 2.5 years to 10 years, leaving the so-called long bond as the security that most closely reflects market expectations for inflation. Since the Fed’s Nov. 3 announcement, the 30-year yield rose 0.28 percentage point, suggesting growing investor confidence in the central bank’s efforts to avoid deflation as the economy expands.

“The 30-year, with minimal Fed involvement, will become the bellwether issue for the bond market’s outlook on the economy and inflation,” said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York.

Trading in Treasuries due in 11 years and more tripled since July, compared with a 60 percent jump for all maturities, according to Fed data. Volume reached $65.7 billion in the week ended Nov. 10 among the 18 primary dealers that trade with the central bank, the largest amount since at least 2001.

The rise in 30-year yields to a six-month high of 4.42 percent on Nov. 15 shows traders expect Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will head off deflation, which can stall recoveries by curtailing spending and investment, said Rohit Garg, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas SA.

The trucks won't load themselves...11.23.2010

I'm headed to work.  Here are your morning reads...

 

Venezuela bans Chavez image use http://bbc.in/hhMvl6

"People like myself should be paying a lot more in taxes," says Warren Buffett http://on.wsj.com/cv9crK

Two GA House Democrats finally decide to make the GOP switch | Political Insider http://goo.gl/JqlKm

The Social Security Trust Fund — Crooked Timber http://goo.gl/xH5Fw

Health insurers must spend more on medical care, new rules say  http://lat.ms/eVrqdB

just a thought on TSA body searches

Georgia Borrows $454 M To Cover Jobless Benefits  http://goo.gl/XFQ2l

Why Democrats Lost for Complete Idiots | Ian Welsh http://goo.gl/DyNX3

Politics, Political Alignment, and Ideology in the Twilight of American Democracy

Financial Crisis in the U.S.--Hundreds Should Go to Jail http://goo.gl/yDgZH

President Bush and Warren Buffett on the Financial Crisis http://goo.gl/krtxJ

Don’t Make Big Business Compete Against Government Bureaucrats

Who Will Stand Up to the Superrich? - NYTimes.com http://goo.gl/nQQjy

War Crimes Should Be Punished even when committed by Americans http://goo.gl/EvS9B

Beyond Understanding - NYTimes.com http://goo.gl/AkW3i

What the Secret Donors Want - NYTimes.com http://goo.gl/jLJeP

Vow to Repeal Health Care Holds Little Promise - NYTimes.com http://goo.gl/ekOWL

Positive and Negative Liberty (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy) http://goo.gl/COp2r

Barbara Bush to Palin: Stay in Alaska - NYTimes.com http://goo.gl/koRJ6

Insurers Gave U.S. Chamber $86 Million Used to Oppose Obama's Health Law - Bloomberg http://goo.gl/K20mR

Macro and Other Market Musings: Further Evidence of An Excess Money Demand Problem http://goo.gl/mQjjV

Macro and Other Market Musings: A Defection from the "Open Letter to Bernanke" http://goo.gl/LSpAQ

Being a good mother http://bit.ly/cgohVm

 

just a thought on TSA body searches

Descriptions from those who felt that TSA unwarranted body searches were invasive have included words like "demeaned" "harassed" "humiliated" "violated"... can't help but note that white america is getting a taste of what urban black males have had to deal with for generations.  Maybe Fox news commentators won't be so snooty next time the ACLU puts out a report on police harassment of blacks/latinos?

 

Somehow I doubt it though...

The trucks won't load themselves... 11.22.2010

I'm headed to work here are your morning reads...

 

Ireland Faces `Outsized' Problem, Seeks EU, IMF Bailout - Bloomberg http://goo.gl/Ry9K1

TEA Partiers for Tax Increases (on the rich too)

Were the Bush Tax Cuts Good for Growth?

NYTimes: Bernanke Presses China on Imbalances, Echoing Obama http://nyti.ms/aIBDEv

NYTimes: Obama Forces Showdown With G.O.P. on Arms Pact http://nyti.ms/bckRFI

Record U.S. Exports Reflect Midwest Boom With 3.7% Unemployment - Bloomberg http://goo.gl/UBdM4

W.P. Accuses People in Washington of Doing Drugs: The Fed and Fiscal Policy http://goo.gl/nLzKV

If China is Worried About Losing Jobs Why Is Its Central Bank Raising Reserve Requirements? http://goo.gl/Rz612

 

 

The trucks won't load themselves...

I'm headed to work.  Here are your morning reads...

 

The Fiscal Commission -- Failure on Multiple Levels

GOP legislator frets over 28 days without insurance

Shiller: Shorting Fiscal Consolidation

Chicago DFA in the NYT http://nyti.ms/ayYhEe

The Debt Commission Plan: No Deal

Mitt Romney on Health Care reform

World Comparison Shows U.S. Healthcare Lacking

 

The trucks won't load themselves...

I'm headed to work here are your morning reads....

 

Quote for the day:

“There is nothing with which every man is so afraid as getting to know how enormously much he is capable of doing and becoming.” --Soren Kierkegaard

 

Criticizing Those Who Criticize Earmarks

Insurance and health

Economics even I understand

An End to the ‘Medical Arms Race’ in Massachusetts

“God Help You. You're on Dialysis.”

Bankers Association Looking Forward To ‘Better Outcomes’ From The Incoming Republican House

Smart people SLEEP LATE