Friday, May 14, 2010

Retail Sales are up...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $366.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.8 percent (±0.5%) above April 2009. Total sales for the February through April 2010 period were up 7.3 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2010 percent change was revised from +1.9 percent (±0.5%) to +2.1 percent (±0.4%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from March 2010 and 9.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 30.1 percent (±1.5%) from April 2009 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were up 15.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

 
 
 
 
 
 
Calculated Risk digs in some more:
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from March to April (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 8.8% from April 2009 (easy comparison).

Retail Sales This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows the increase in final demand ex-gasoline has been sluggish.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows the increase in final demand ex-gasoline has been sluggish.

 
 
 
 
 
Retail sales are up 9.2% from the bottom, but still off 3.6% from the pre-recession peak.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (8.8% for all retail sales). The year-over-year comparisons are easy now since retail sales collapsed in late 2008. Retail sales bottomed in December 2008.

Posted via email from Jim Nichols

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