The Dismal Future Of The GOP

Bruce Bartlett:

Clinton's election in 1992 was viewed as a triumph of the DLC strategy. But in his first two years, he governed more as a traditional liberal than the moderate he had run as. Newt Gingrich, then the House Republican whip, recognized that Clinton's betrayal of his moderate image created an opportunity for Republicans to take control of the House.

Gingrich's key insight was that the few remaining Southern Democrats were the primary barriers to Republican control because they all represented districts that Republicans could win. Historically, Republicans had given a pass to conservative Democrats in the South because they mostly voted with Republicans. But there was one time when the Southerners were loyal Democrats: when it was time to organize the House and elect a speaker.

Gingrich's strategy was to put severe pressure on conservative Democrats. Either retire, switch parties or suffer an aggressive Republican challenge, he told them. Most chose to retire or become Republicans. This is what gave the GOP control of Congress in 1994. Thus we see that Republican control of Congress was the ultimate result of the Democrats' decision to purge their conservative wing in 1974.

After winning control of Congress and the White House in 2000, Republicans were as full of themselves as Democrats had been after achieving the same goal in 1976 and 1992. Cooperation with the other party was viewed as a sell-out by partisans of the party in control. The dominant element of each party--liberals in 1977 and 1993, and conservatives in 2001--moved quickly to implement long-cherished measures that had been blocked by a lack of unified control of the executive and legislative branches.

At this point, Democrats finally accepted that applying ideological litmus tests was self-defeating. If some moderate or conservative wanted to run in a district that would only elect a moderate or conservative, then it was stupid to insist that they endorse every liberal item in the Democratic agenda. Moderates and conservatives were permitted to dissent from the party line on issues such as gun control if that was what it took to win.

This "big tent" approach was highly successful and greatly helped Democrats retake control of Congress in 2006. What probably hurt congressional Republicans the most, however, was their down-the-line support for every action by George W. Bush, no matter how ill-conceived, poorly implemented or at odds with the party's basic philosophy, such as when he insisted on a massive expansion of Medicare in 2003.

As a consequence, the Republican brand was destroyed. The party is now widely viewed as corrupt, incompetent, ideologically rigid and out of step with the American mainstream. It should be engaging in self-examination, developing an agenda that addresses the real problems faced by Americans and reaching out to the millions of voters who have left the GOP in recent years. Instead, Republicans are pushing out the last of the party's moderates as if that will somehow make them more popular with the very moderates whose votes are essential if they are to regain power.

I think Republicans desperately need a group that will do for them what the DLC did for the Democrats. Unfortunately, I see no such organization or any resources available for those that might start one. Those with such resources are either turned off by Republican pandering to its right wing and have left the party or they agree with it. Either way, no one in the Republican Party seems to have any interest in victory, and they prefer to wear defeat as some kind of badge of honor.

Eventually, Republicans will tire of being out of power just as Democrats did, and they will do what it takes to win. But I fear that Republicans will have to at least lose in 2010 and again in 2012 before they start to come to their senses. Perhaps by 2014, some leader with maturity, resources, vision and discipline will find a way of leading the GOP out of the wilderness. But I see no one even in a position to start that process today.

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